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imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Jul 28, 2026, 10-Q of Oct 27, 2026
tariffs, rising inflation, political tensions, still elevated interest rates, and reduced credit availability causes the
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The baseline economic scenario used to estimate our March 31, 2026 ACL assumes continued tariff uncertainty,
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Apr 30, 2026
the commercial real estate environment, current inflation levels, the impacts of U.S. trade policies, including tariffs,
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Jul 28, 2026, 10-Q of Oct 27, 2026
and that the Middle East conflict will widen. The combination of tariffs, rising inflation, political tensions, still
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than expected. In this scenario, the impact of tariffs on the economy is significantly worse than expected, causing
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Jul 28, 2026
3.2% for 2026. The inflation outlook stabilizes slightly as the impacts of tariffs and other trade policies moderate,
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Apr 30, 2026
Continued economic uncertainty and a recessionary or stagnant economy could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Our performance could be negatively affected to the extent there is deterioration in business and economic conditions, including persistent inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain issues, labor shortages, or changes in U.S. trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, which have direct or indirect material adverse impacts on us, our customers, and our counterparties. These conditions could result in one or more of the following:
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-K of Feb 13, 2026
Despite persistent elevated levels of uncertainty, the market has demonstrated considerable resilience. Broad-based equity indices have been trading in proximity to record highs, while corporate credit spreads are near historically narrow levels. Tariffs continue to serve as a dynamic variable, with the potential to influence both the financial markets and the broader economic landscape.
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Management continues to assess the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, including ongoing risks in the commercial real estate environment, current inflation levels, the impacts of U.S. trade policies including tariffs, political uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, considering multiple macroeconomic forecasts that reflect a range of possible outcomes. While we have incorporated estimates of economic uncertainty into our ACL, the ultimate impact that specific challenges will have on the economy remains unknown.
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-K of Feb 13, 2026
The baseline economic scenario used in the September 30, 2025 ACL determination assumes continued tariff uncertainty, but reflects marginal improved performance of the U.S. economy in the near term with minimal change in the overall outlook. In this scenario, the unemployment rate is expected to end 2025 at 4.4%, with peak unemployment of 4.8% through the end of 2026. The Federal Reserve restarted rate cuts in the third quarter of 2025 and is expected to continue with future rate cuts until reaching the federal funds rate of 3% by the end of 2026. The inflation outlook deteriorates slightly as the impacts of tariffs and other trade policies are expected to cascade through the economy, with near-term inflation expected to rise further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until the rate begins to decline in the second half of 2026 but still remaining above target. GDP growth, while positive, has slowed to a current level of approximately 1% and is forecasted to remain below 2% through the end of 2026.
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Oct 28, 2025
Economic data remains mixed. The services sector, while continuing to expand, is starting to slow down. The manufacturing sector appears to be stabilizing after a couple of years of contraction. U.S. consumer spending is slowing but has held up better than expected. It remains uncertain where tariff levels will end up and how that will impact the economy in terms of inflation, corporate profits, and consumer spending. Geopolitical risks also increased in the second quarter of 2025 and have the potential to cause economic shocks.
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… In addition, changes in trade policies by the United States, such as tariffs or retaliatory tariffs, may cause inflation which could impact the prices of products sold by our borrowers and have the potential to reduce demand for their products, impacting their profitability and making it difficult for our borrowers to repay their loans. Adverse economic conditions and government policy …
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… In this scenario, the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on the economy is significantly worse than expected, causing inflation to increase. Increased geopolitical tensions heighten the risk that China might block the Taiwan strait, limiting the supply chain for semiconductors and raising fears of a broader conflict. Additionally, concerns grow that the Russian invasion of Ukraine lasts longer than …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Oct 28, 2025, 10-Q of Jul 29, 2025, 10-K of Feb 14, 2025
Economic conditions remained overall healthy during the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience despite uncertainty stemming from the longest government shutdown on record and disruptions in the availability of certain economic data. Financial markets reflected this underlying strength, with broad equity indices remaining near record levels and corporate credit spreads continuing to trade near historically tight levels. Trade policy developments, including the use of tariffs, remain an evolving factor for both financial markets and economic activity. While legal and geopolitical developments bear monitoring, market participants have demonstrated an ability to absorb these uncertainties, supported by generally favorable global financial conditions, even amid periods of increased volatility in select international markets.
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The baseline economic scenario used in the June 30, 2025 ACL determination assumes the imposition of tariffs impacts global trade and weakens the U.S. economy, with weak near-term GDP growth and increasing unemployment. The unemployment rate is forecasted to increase to 4.4% by the fourth quarter of 2025, continuing to increase to 4.9% through the end of 2026. The Federal Reserve is projected to restart rate cuts beginning the second half of 2025 and into 2026, until reaching a federal funds rate of 3% by the third quarter of 2026. Inflation starts out at 3.8% with modest improvement expected through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, before ending 2026 at 1.8%. GDP starts out at 0.4%, with improvement through the end of 2026, ending at 1.9%.
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 10-Q of Jul 29, 2025
The market continues to be challenging, however, some clarity is starting to emerge. Tariff impacts remain fluid with the most recent deadline to negotiate trade agreements being extended until August 1, 2025. While the OBBBA was passed by Congress and signed into law, there remains uncertainty of the impact. Among other things, the OBBBA increases the debt ceiling, which relieves some short-term market pressure. The Federal Reserve has now held rates steady for the first half of 2025 as inflation remains above its 2% target. On the employment side, the labor market has held up well, with unemployment at 4.1%. Federal Reserve officials continue to reiterate that they can be patient at current inflation and unemployment levels to see how policy changes impact economic data, however, certain Federal Reserve officials have recently discussed restarting rate cuts.
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… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as FDIC special …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Oct 17, 2025, 8-K of Oct 17, 2025, 8-K of Jul 14, 2025, 8-K of Jul 14, 2025, 8-K of Jul 18, 2025
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as FDIC special …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Apr 23, 2026, 8-K of Jul 23, 2026, 8-K of Oct 22, 2026, 8-K of Jan 22, 2026, 8-K of Apr 17, 2025, 8-K of Apr 17, 2025, 10-K of Feb 13, 2026, 8-K of Feb 9, 2026, 8-K of Mar 10, 2026, 8-K of May 27, 2026, 8-K of Jun 8, 2026, 8-K of Jul 23, 2026, 8-K of Sep 16, 2026, 8-K of Apr 23, 2026, 10-Q of Jul 29, 2025, 10-Q of Oct 28, 2025, 8-K of Jan 23, 2026, 8-K of Oct 22, 2026, 8-K of Jan 22, 2026
We are operating in a challenging and uncertain economic environment. The global credit and financial markets have from time to time experienced extreme volatility and disruptions, including severely diminished liquidity and credit availability, declines in consumer confidence, declines in economic growth, increases in unemployment rates, high rates of inflation, and uncertainty about economic stability. As a result, financial institutions continue to be affected by uncertainty in the real estate market, the credit markets, and the national financial market generally. We retain direct exposure to the commercial and residential real estate markets, and we are affected by events in these markets. The financial markets and the global economy may also be adversely affected by the current or anticipated impact of military conflict, including the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East, which increase volatility in commodity and energy prices, creating supply chain issues and causing instability in financial markets. Sanctions, tariffs, or other economic penalties imposed by the United States and other countries in response to such conflicts could further adversely impact the financial markets and the global economy, and any economic countermeasures by the affected countries or others could exacerbate market and economic instability.
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… An additional interest rate reduction may occur later in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the Federal Reserve continues to monitor relevant economic data and the effects of the impact of enacted tariffs. The decreases in interest rates during the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025 have had an effect on both our balance sheet as …
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… Due to the introduction of tariffs and other policy changes made by the U.S. government after forecasts were published, the Bank elected to increase the macroeconomic qualitative factor to account for uncertainties not yet reflected in forecasts used by the Bank. 63 The Company recognizes that higher interest rates, inflation, and slower economic growth may have short-term, long …
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… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Dec 23, 2025, 8-K of Dec 23, 2025, 8-K of Dec 29, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025, 8-K of Oct 27, 2025, 8-K of Oct 30, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025, 8-K of Dec 1, 2025
… exports, disruptions to supply chains, impacts from decreased international tourism, decreased demand for other banking products and services and negative credit quality developments arising from the foregoing or other factors; the uncertain duration of trade conflicts; the magnitude of the impact that the proposed tariffs may have on our customers’ businesses; a deterioration of the credit rating for U.S …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Dec 1, 2025
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Jun 8, 2026, 8-K of Sep 16, 2026
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pa ndemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal …
Read in the filing ↗ Also in 8-K of Dec 9, 2025, 8-K of May 27, 2026
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as FDIC special …
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… exports, disruptions to supply chains, impacts from decreased international tourism, decreased demand for other banking products and services and negative credit quality developments arising from the foregoing or other factors; the uncertain duration of trade conflicts; the magnitude of the impact that the proposed tariffs may have on our customers’ businesses; a deterioration of the credit rating for U.S …
Read in the filing ↗
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
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… and debt markets, as well as changes in interest rates) affecting the financial services industry generally and not specifically relating to such party or its Subsidiaries, (D) any international tariffs, trade policies or similar “trade” actions, (E) changes, after the date hereof, resulting from hurricanes, earthquakes, tornados, floods, wildfires or other natural or manmade disasters or from any outbreak of …
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… Additional interest rate reductions may occur during the second half of 2025 as the Federal Reserve continues to monitor relevant economic data and the effects of recently enacted tariffs. The decreases in interest rates during the fourth quarter of 2024 have had an effect on both our balance sheet as well as our earnings. As seen in the following sections …
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… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
Read in the filing ↗
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
Read in the filing ↗
… trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs; the impact of pandemics and other catastrophic events or disasters on the global economy and financial market conditions and our business, results of operations, and financial condition; the impacts related to or resulting from bank failures and other volatility, including potential increased regulatory requirements and costs, such as Federal Deposit …
Read in the filing ↗